在伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊“圣城旅”指揮官蘇萊馬尼少將遭美國襲擊身亡后,伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊高級指揮官阿布哈姆扎表示,“(中東海灣)這一地區大約35個美方目標以及(以色列)特拉維夫在我們的打擊范圍之內!睂Υ,美國領導人警告稱,如果伊朗襲擊美方人員或資產,美方將對52個伊朗目標進行迅速和猛烈的打擊。美伊矛盾再次走進了螺旋式上升的惡性循環,這不由得令國際社會擔心:沖動和短視的決策將隨時引爆中東“火藥桶”。

In the wake of iran's islamic revolutionary guard \"al-qaeda brigade\" commander of the u.s. attack and death, iran's islamic revolutionary guard senior commander abkha hamza said,\"[ middle east gulf] this area about 35 american targets and [israel] tel aviv is within our reach.\" In response, U.S. leaders warned that if Iran attacked U.S. personnel or assets, the U.S. would strike 52 Iranian targets quickly and violently. The US-Iranian contradictions have once again entered a spiral of spiralling upward spiral, which has led the international community to worry that impulsive and short-sighted decisions will explode the Middle East's \"powder keg\" at any time.

  美伊關系不和由來已久,蘇萊馬尼少將遭襲身亡,是美伊關系這堵危墻上的最新一道裂痕。在上世紀50年代反殖民化浪潮中,伊朗民選首相摩薩臺因推動石油產業國有化觸動英美利益。1953年8月,美國通過策動政變推翻了摩薩臺政權,并扶持巴列維國王走上前臺。這為美伊關系的破裂埋下了種子。1979年,伊朗伊斯蘭革命推翻巴列維王朝。由此,美伊關系陷入長達數十年的對抗。如今伊朗社會的相當一部分民眾,都是在美國的制裁中成長起來的。蘇萊馬尼的死亡無疑帶來洶涌民意。如何在確保國家和民族根本利益的前提下,化解好民意壓力,是伊朗面臨的一大挑戰。

U. S.-Iranian relations have a long history, and the death of Major General Sulaimani is the latest crack in the wall of U. S .-Iranian relations. In the anti-colonial wave of the 1950s, Iran's democratically elected prime minister, Mossad, touched British and American interests by promoting the nationalisation of the oil industry. In August 1953, the United States used a coup d'etat to overthrow the Mossad regime and helped bring King Barevi to the fore. This has seeded the rupture of relations between the United States and Iraq. In 1979, the iranian islamic revolution overthrew the bharavi dynasty. As a result, U.S.-Iranian relations have fallen into decades of confrontation. Today, a significant portion of Iranian society has grown up under US sanctions. Sulaimani's death has undoubtedly brought surging public opinion. How to resolve the pressure of public opinion on the premise of ensuring the fundamental interests of the state and the nation is a major challenge for Iran.

  歷史一再證明,單邊使用武力和極限施壓,只能適得其反。西亞北非亂局出現以來,中東海灣地區局勢持續動蕩,一些由西方國家“撐腰”的反政府武裝在世界秩序的邊緣地帶野蠻生長,日趨極端化、恐怖主義化。極端組織“伊斯蘭國”的出現,本身就標志著美國反恐政策的失敗。

History has repeatedly shown that unilateral use of force and extreme pressure are counterproductive. Since the emergence of chaos in West Asia and North Africa, the situation in the Middle East Gulf region has continued to be volatile, and some anti-government forces, supported by Western countries, have grown savagely on the margins of the world order, becoming increasingly extremist and terrorist. The emergence of an extremist group, the Islamic State, in itself represents a failure of United States counter-terrorism policy.

  在這一背景下,被視為敘利亞重要盟友的伊朗,加強了與敘政府和其他國家一些力量的反恐合作。與此同時,伊朗借勢擴張了在包括伊拉克在內的“什葉派新月地帶”的影響力。隸屬于伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的“圣城旅”正是這一擴張進程的先導力量,被認為對美方利益構成挑戰。2019年4月,美國將伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊——一個主權國家的武裝力量,列為恐怖組織,以加大對伊朗“極限施壓”的范圍和力度,導致美伊關系進一步緊張。

In this context, Iran, seen as a key ally of Syria, has strengthened its counter-terrorism cooperation with the Syrian government and some other forces. Meanwhile, Iran has seized the opportunity to expand its influence in the \"Shia Crescent \"zone, including Iraq. The Al-Quds Brigade, affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is a leading force in the expansion process and is seen as challenging American interests. In April 2019, the United States classified Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - the armed forces of a sovereign state - as a terrorist group to increase the scope and strength of \"extreme pressure\" on Iran, leading to further tension between the United States and Iran.

  與之相伴的,是伊朗與伊核問題六國(美國、英國、法國、俄羅斯、中國和德國)2015年7月達成的伊核問題全面協議出現倒退。隨著美方在2018年5月單方面退出協議,曾經實現軟著陸的伊核問題被重新點燃。

It is accompanied by a reversal of Iran's comprehensive nuclear deal with the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) in July 2015. With the U.S.'s unilateral exit from the agreement in May 2018, the Iranian nuclear issue that once achieved a soft landing has been reignited.

  在蘇萊馬尼遭襲身亡后,伊朗政府5日宣布進入中止履行伊核協議的第五階段即最后階段,放棄伊核協議中的最后一項關鍵限制,即“對離心機數量的限制”。但正如中國外交部發言人指出的,伊方雖然因外部因素被迫減少履約,但同時也展示了克制態度,明確表達完整、有效執行全面協議的政治意愿,沒有違反《不擴散核武器條約》規定的義務。伊核全面協議來之不易,各方均應保持冷靜、理性,推動伊核及中東地區局勢走向緩和。

After Sulaimani's attack and death, the Iranian government announced on Friday that it had entered the final phase, the fifth phase, of suspending the implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement, and abandoned the last key limit in the agreement, the \"limit on the number of centrifuges.\" However, as China's foreign ministry spokesman pointed out, the Iranian side, forced by external factors to reduce its performance, has also demonstrated restraint and clearly expressed its political will to implement the comprehensive agreement in a complete and effective manner, without violating its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. All parties should remain calm and rational, and push the Iranian nuclear and Middle East situation toward a calm.

  與此同時,國際社會也紛紛呼吁美伊雙方保持克制。聯合國秘書長古特雷斯通過發言人警告,“世界無法承受又一場海灣戰爭!狈▏、德國和英國領導人針對中東局勢發表聯合聲明,呼吁各方采取克制和負責任的態度,以緩解緊張局勢?梢,中東局勢牽一發而動全身,盡快為緊張局勢降溫,符合國際社會的共同利益。

At the same time, the international community has called on both sides to exercise restraint. U. N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned through a spokesman that \"the world cannot afford another Gulf war.\" The leaders of France, Germany and Britain issued joint statements in response to the situation in the Middle East, calling for restraint and accountability to ease tensions. It can be seen that it is in the common interest of the international community that the situation in the Middle East takes its toll on the whole body and reduces tensions as soon as possible.

  中東局勢高度敏感復雜,軍事手段沒有出路,極限施壓更行不通。有關各方應充分發揮政治智慧,共同維護聯合國憲章宗旨原則和國際關系基本準則,努力走出對抗的惡性循環,盡快回到通過對話解決問題的軌道上來,避免中東海灣地區陷入新的危局。(國際銳評評論員)

The situation in the Middle East is highly sensitive and complex, the military means have no way out, and the ultimate pressure is even more unworkable. All parties concerned should give full play to their political wisdom, work together to uphold the principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the basic principles of international relations, work hard to get out of the vicious circle of confrontation and return to the track of resolving problems through dialogue as soon as possible, so as to avoid a new crisis in the Gulf region of the Middle East. (international commentator)


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